Howard Marks

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    Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted
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    The most valuable lessons are learned in tough times
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    Some of the most important for me were Charley Ellis’s great article “The Loser’s Game” (The Financial Analysts Journal, July-August 1975), A Short History of Financial Euphoria, by John Kenneth Galbraith (New York: Viking, 1990) and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness (New York: Texere, 2001). Each did a great deal to shape my thinking
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    Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler
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    It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.
    CHARLIE MUNGER
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    In my view, that’s the definition of successful investing: doing better than the market and other investors
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    Who’ll get it? The person who’s a step ahead
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    Thus, your thinking has to be better than that of others— both more powerful and at a higher level
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    You must be more right than others … which by definition means your thinking has to be different
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    First-level thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall; sell.” Secondlevel thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall less than people expect, and the pleasant surprise will lift the stock; buy.
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