The story illustrates the folly of looking to the past in order to predict the future.
Victor Butenkoцитує5 років тому
says, results in a distortion bias, “the difference between what you see and what is there
Victor Butenkoцитує5 років тому
narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them
Victor Butenkoцитує5 років тому
round-trip fallacy, the human tendency to conflate two similar-sounding statements that are in fact convey very different information.
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Taleb encourages readers to maximize their exposure to potential positive Black Swans by putting themselves in situations (like social gatherings) that have the potential to produce fortuitous encounters. And
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barbell strategy advocates for, “taking maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans
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taking maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans while remaining paranoid about the negative ones
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“[k]now how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but to the harm they may cause
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his vision of utopia as an epistemocracy, “[A] society governed from the basis of awareness of ignorance, not knowledge
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In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few.